On The Average Number of Households with Malaria Control in Nigeria: A Bayesian Approach

Oladoja, Oladapo Muyiwa

Abstract


Malaria, a common disease poses a great threat to human existence in Nigeria. Though various ways existed by which the endemic disease can be prevented amongst are the use of mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study determine the average number of households with mosquito nets and IRS among the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria using the Bayesian approach. Assuming normality for the households with mosquito nets and IRS, and also using a conjugate normal prior, the posterior density follows a normal distribution. For households with mosquito nets, the posterior mean and standard deviation respectively for the six geopolitical zones are 5864.33 & 824.662 for North-Central, 5186.51 & 824.662 for North-East, 9293.89 & 824.662 for North-West, 4825.68 & 824.662 for South-East, 5287.67 & 824.662 for South-West and 7214.91 & 824.662 for South-South. For households with IRS, the posterior mean and standard deviation respectively for the six geopolitical zones are 4454.97 & 566.391 for North-Central, 4644.03 & 566.391 for North-East, 6820.33 & 566.391 for North-West, 4246.24 & 566.391 for South-East, 3664.52 & 566.391 for South-West and 4873.29 & 566.391 for South-South. The North-West geopolitical zone had the highest average number of households with mosquito nets and IRS, while the South-East geopolitical zone had the lowest average number of households with mosquito nets and the South-South geopolitical zone had the lowest number of households with IRS.


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