Evaluation of Crime Rate in Delta State: a Time Series Approach

Abstract

This study evaluates the crime rate in Delta State Nigeria from 2007 to 2016. The objective of this study is to ascertain the best model for estimating the trend of total crime, to test whether crime across the various zones in Delta State is the same and to determine the most committed crime in Delta State. The statistical tool  used  in this study were the trend analysis, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin Test Statistic, measures of model Accuracy and  Kruskal-Wallis test.  The findings of the study showed that the Quadratic model was adequate for estimating  total crime trend in Delta State. It was found that total crime has an creasing Quadratic trend across the observed period. The series was found to be stationary and the four years forecast revealed a decreasing crime trend from 2017 to 2020. It was found that crime across the zones were not statistically significant. Also, findings showed that stealing is one of the most committed crime in Asaba which this validates the alarming rate of poverty and hunger in the state and Nigeria in general.