Developing a Diabetes Risk Score for Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Abstract

It is estimated that 3.5 million South African live with type 2 diabetes and another 5 million may be undiagnosed. These undiagnosed diabetics are at very high risk of serious and life threatening chronic complications resulting from unmanaged condition. The outcome is high diabetes-related morbidity and mortality in South Africa with 58 deaths per day. The purpose of this study was to develop a Diabetes Risk Score (DRS) for the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, that is a simple diabetes risk calculator for use in primary health care, and also by individuals themselves in identifying diabetes status. This is being done in India without the costly laboratory tests or other unaffordable clinical measures requiring specialized skills. Design and Methods.  A total of 451 subjects attending Community Health Centers in the King Sabata Dalindyebo Municipality and Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality Districts of Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, signed informed consent and participated in the study. Data collected included demographics, family history of diabetes, information about exercise practices and measurement of waist circumference. A diabetes risk score for each participant was generated for the following risks: age, family history of diabetes, exercise and waist circumference. The objective was to determine a composite diabetes risk score using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and measuring the area under the curve for the optimal Diabetes Risk Score that predicts pre-diabetes/undiagnosed diabetes. Results. We have developed a Diabetes Risk Score for Eastern Cape based on the limited sample that was studied. Conclusion. The Diabetes Risk Score is 60.