Passenger Journey Destination Estimation From Automated Fare Collection System Data Using Spatial Validation

Abstract

A methodology for estimating the destination
of pas-senger journeys from automated fare collection
(AFC) system data is described. It proposes new spatial
validation features to increase the accuracy of destination
inference results and to verify key assumptions present in
previous origin–destination estimation literature. The
methodology applies to entry-only system con-figurations
combined with distance-based fare structures, and it aims
to enhance raw AFC system data with the destination of
individual journeys. This paper describes an algorithm
developed to implement the methodology and the results
from its application to bus service data from Porto. The
data relate to an AFC system integrated with an automatic
vehicle location system that records a transaction for each
passenger boarding a bus, containing at-tributes regarding
the route, the vehicle, and the travel card used, along with
the time and the location where the journey began. Some of
these are recorded for the purpose of allowing onboard
ticket inspection but additionally enable innovative spatial
valida-tion features introduced by the methodology. The
results led to the conclusion that the methodology is
effective for estimating journey destinations at the
disaggregate level and identifies false positives reliably.